Gold prices in Kerala have witnessed a decline, tracking global market trends, with the current price hovering at around 1.03 lakh per pavan. As gold enthusiasts monitor these fluctuations, questions regarding future price trends have emerged. Financial expert Mary George has weighed in on the potential trajectory of gold prices.
Speaking during a discussion, George addressed fears of a major conflict, stating, “Even if Trump speaks out or Iran resists, a massive war will not break out suddenly. The global market is confident that a conflict would only be considered after a phased process of discussions and confrontations.” She noted that while the stock market remained negative last week, with foreign financial institutions withdrawing investments from India, there has been some relief in that regard. However, she emphasized that the geopolitical tensions have not yet concluded.
Regarding the gold market, George observed that prices had been trending downwards last week before showing signs of recovery. She clarified that this does not necessarily mean a sustained upward trend. “If Trump and Israel move toward a hardline stance, things could become serious,” she noted. She also pointed to developments in the fuel market, where expectations that Iran might open the Strait of Hormuz have led to a slight dip in oil prices, signaling a potential for a swift agreement between Iran and the US.
The Indian government has already taken steps to mitigate the impact of rising crude oil prices by reducing excise duties on diesel and petrol, aiming to curb broader inflation. George also discussed the recent volatility in the Indian Rupee, which saw its value drop from 83 per dollar at the start of the 2025-26 fiscal year to 95 per dollar by April 1. The Reserve Bank of India has intervened by selling dollars from its reserves and closely monitoring commercial banks to stabilize the currency.
Concluding her assessment, George expressed confidence regarding the medium-term outlook for gold. “If Iran comes forward with a peace treaty within the timeframe set by Trump, gold prices will gradually decline. While some volatility with sudden rises and dips is expected, it is certain that gold prices will remain below the one-lakh mark in the 2026-27 fiscal year,” she added.